:Product: 19981120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 324 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8391 (S17E34) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS FLARE, A C2/SF AT 1524Z. THE REGION WAS GROWING
SLOWLY AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8384 (S28W62)
CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK BUT COULD ONLY
PRODUCE LOW LEVEL SUBFLARES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THERE WAS AN INTERVAL OF ACTIVE LEVELS AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE 2ND AND 3RD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 NOV-23 NOV
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 NOV 122
PREDICTED   21 NOV-23 NOV  120/120/115
90 DAY MEAN        20 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 NOV  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 NOV  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 NOV-23 NOV  010/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 NOV-23 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05