:Product: 19981124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 328 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS.  REGION 8384
(S26W114) PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE FLARE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED  X1 AT
24/0220Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 24/0217Z.  THE
TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 400 KM/S.  A 470 SFU TENFLARE WAS
ALSO DETECTED DURING THE X1 EVENT.  SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED,
LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO DETECTED DURING THE PERIOD.  TWO
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.  REGION 8394 (S16W49), AND REGION
8395 (N17E81).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  M-CLASS FLARE PROBABLILITIES MAY INCREASE AS REGION
8393 (S18E62) AND REGION 8395 ROTATE FURTHER TO THE WEST.  THE
LOCATION OF REGION 8395 CORRELATES WELL WITH OLD REGION 8375, WHICH
PRODUCED A MAJOR FLARE AND A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING ITS LAST
ROTATION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD THAT FOLLOWED THE X-CLASS
FLARE EARLY TODAY, AND HAS NOW DECREASED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
CLASS M    40/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 NOV 140
PREDICTED   25 NOV-27 NOV  145/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        24 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV  012/011
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV  010/012-010/009-010/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 NOV-27 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01