:Product: 19981125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 329 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVELS.  REGION 8395 (N17E68)
PRODUCED A C8/1F FLARE AT 24/2215Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP.
THE TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 800 KM/S.  AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C6 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 25/1403Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TYPE II SWEEP; THE SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 KM/S.  BOTH REGIONS
8395 AND 8393 (S18E50) PRODUCED NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY
FLARES.  OBSERVATIONS REPORTED MORE SPOTS ROTATING INTO VIEW ON THE
EAST LIMB NEAR N17.  IT IS POSSIBLE A SEPARATE REGION IS ROTATING ON
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND REGION 8395.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A
M-CLASS FLARE FROM THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS IN THE EAST.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 NOV 150
PREDICTED   26 NOV-28 NOV  155/160/165
90 DAY MEAN        25 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 NOV  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 NOV  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 NOV-28 NOV  010/009-010/009-010/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 NOV-28 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01