:Product: 19981126RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 330 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N17E56) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD - A C4/1F AT 26/1039Z. THIS REGION'S
LIMB PROXIMITY IS STILL PREVENTING A THOROUGH ANALYSIS; HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS NOW AS A MODERATELY COMPLEX, BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION
COVERING 420 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGIONS 8392 (S23E08)
AND 8393 (S19E38) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES AND LOW C-CLASS BURSTS
BUT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE OR COMPLEXITY. A 22 DEGREE FILAMENT
ERUPTED NEAR N63E53 EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8396 (N28W45)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A D-TYPE GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THOUGH REGION 8395 HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY MAJOR
ACTIVITY, ITS SIZE AND COMPLEXITY SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR
M-CLASS FLARES. REGIONS 8392, 8393, AND NEW REGION 8396 ARE ALL
CAPABLE OF C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 NOV 156
PREDICTED   27 NOV-29 NOV  160/165/165
90 DAY MEAN        26 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 NOV  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 NOV  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 NOV-29 NOV  015/015-010/009-010/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 NOV-29 NOV
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01