:Product: 19981128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 332 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8395 (N20E33)
PRODUCED A X3/3N AT 28/0552Z. THIS EVENT HAD TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURST INCLUDING 3600 SFU'S AT 2695 MHZ. A
PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. OBSERVATORIES
REPORTED SOME SPOT GROWTH PRIOR TO THE FLARE.  REGION 8395 IS NOW A
MODERATELY COMPLEX F-TYPE GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION. IT PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES SHORTLY AFTER THE X3/3N,
BUT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STABLE SINCE 28/1400Z. REGION 8393 (S18E12)
DISPLAYED A BIT OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT WAS STABLE DURING THE
PERIOD. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8395 HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE FIELD OF NEAR FLARE
INTENSITY PLAGE SINCE THE X-FLARE TODAY. FREQUENT SUBFLARES,
FLUCTUATIONS, AND SURGES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
MAJOR FLARE. REGION 8393 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY WITH A SMALL
CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH DAY 1. A MINOR DISTURBANCE FROM THE
M1/2N FLARE EARLY ON THE 27TH MAY CAUSE ACTIVE CONDITIONS ON DAY 2
AND 3.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     20/20/20
PCAF       YELLOW
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 NOV 165
PREDICTED   29 NOV-01 DEC  165/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        28 NOV 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 NOV  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 NOV-01 DEC  005/010-015/018-012/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 NOV-01 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/30
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/35/35
MINOR STORM           01/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01