:Product: 19981129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 333 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8395 (N22E21) REMAINS
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IT IS A LONG F-TYPE
GROUP WITH SOME MIXED POLARITIES. SUNSPOT GROWTH LEADING THIS GROUP
AND TO THE NORTHEAST MAY BE BETTER IDENTIFIED AS SEPARATE SUNSPOT
REGIONS, ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS HAVE NOT YET BEEN NUMBERED. REGION
8395 CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
SINCE YESTERDAY'S MAJOR FLARE. NEW REGION 8397 (N15E68) IS ROTATING
ONTO THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8395 MAY BE CAPABLE OF ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS NORMAL TO MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 NOV 168
PREDICTED   30 NOV-02 DEC  170/172/174
90 DAY MEAN        29 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 NOV  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 NOV  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 NOV-02 DEC  015/018-015/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 NOV-02 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05