:Product: 19981130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Nov 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 334 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 NOV 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
FROM A VARIETY OF SUNSPOT GROUPS, INCLUDING 8392 (S22W46), 8395
(N22E11), AND 8396 (N28W95). REGION 8395 HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
YESTERDAY. THE SUNSPOTS LEADING THIS GROUP HAVE BEEN SPLIT OFF AS A
SEPARATE BIPOLAR REGION AND NUMBERED 8398 (N18W05). THE SUNSPOTS TO
THE NORTHEAST HAVE ALSO BEEN SPLIT OFF AS A SEPARATE GROUP AND
NUMBERED 8399 (N30E23). THE REMAINING SPOTS STILL LEAVE 8395 AS A
MODERATELY LARGE F-TYPE GROUP SPANNING OVER 20 DEGREES IN EXTENT.
EMERGING REGIONS 8400 (S18E08) AND 8401 (N12E27) WERE ALSO NUMBERED.
ADDITIONAL SUNSPOTS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST LIMB BEHIND REGION
8397 (N15E64). PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE COMPRISE A
SEPARATE GROUP AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE NUMBERED AFTER A PROPER
SEPARATION IS DETERMINED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AND MODERATE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE IN A NUMBER OF SUNSPOT GROUPS. REGIONS 8395, 8396, AND 8397
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY FLARE PRODUCERS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. A WEAK SUDDEN
IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED ON GROUND MAGNETOMETERS AT ABOUT 30/0512Z.  ACE
DID NOT SEE A STRONG SHOCK; HOWEVER, IT DID INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE
SOLAR WIND STRUCTURE AT ABOUT 30/0430Z. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE
CME DETECTED BY SOHO/LASCO ON 27 NOVEMBER.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 DEC-03 DEC
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 NOV 163
PREDICTED   01 DEC-03 DEC  160/158/156
90 DAY MEAN        30 NOV 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 NOV  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 NOV  012/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 DEC-03 DEC  015/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 DEC-03 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05