:Product: 19981201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 335 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. FLARES OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8392
(S22W59), 8395 (N20W01), 8397 (N14E46), AND 8402 (N17E64). REGION
8402 IS THE NEWLY NUMBERED AREA ROTATING ONTO THE DISK BEHIND REGION
8397. YET ANOTHER SUNSPOT GROUP APPEARS TO BE BEHIND REGION 8402 AND
WILL MOST LIKELY BE NUMBERED AFTER MORE OF IT BECOMES VISIBLE.
REGION 8395 WAS THE MOST ACTIVE SUNSPOT GROUP OVER THE PAST DAY,
PRODUCING SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE SHOWING
SIGNS OF SIMPLIFICATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE FROM REGIONS 8395, 8397,
AND 8402. AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS AS
WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 DEC-04 DEC
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 DEC 163
PREDICTED   02 DEC-04 DEC  162/160/160
90 DAY MEAN        01 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 NOV  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 DEC  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 DEC-04 DEC  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 DEC-04 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01