:Product: 19981202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 336 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES
OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8395 (N20W17) AND 8402 (N18E53). REGION 8395
CONTINUES TO DECAY SLOWLY. REGIONS 8393 (S16W45), 8398 (N18W28),
8399 (N26W04), AND 8400 (S18W21) HAVE ALSO DECAYED. OTHER REGIONS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8395, 8397, AND
8402. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE
REGIONS, THE CHANCE OF MAJOR FLARE ACTIVITY IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 DEC 152
PREDICTED   03 DEC-05 DEC  150/148/146
90 DAY MEAN        02 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 DEC  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 DEC  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 DEC-05 DEC  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 DEC-05 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01