:Product: 19981203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 337 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW BY VIRTUE OF TWO MINOR C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS, ONE FROM REGION 8395 (N18W27) AND THE OTHER FROM
REGION 8397 (N14E22). DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF FIVE ADDITIONAL ACTIVE
REGIONS, THERE WAS NO OTHER ACTIVITY OF NOTE. REGIONS 8395 (21-SPOT
'FAI' BETA-GAMMA), 8397 (7-SPOT 'EAO' BETA), AND 8402 (N18E41,
8-SPOT 'EAO' BETA) REMAIN THE MOST COMPLEX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY, AND MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS
POSSIBLE, FROM ANY OF REGIONS 8395, 8397, AND 8402.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT ALL LATITUDES
FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 DEC 153
PREDICTED   04 DEC-06 DEC  150/148/148
90 DAY MEAN        03 DEC   131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 DEC  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 DEC  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 DEC-06 DEC  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 DEC-06 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01