:Product: 19981205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 339 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO MINOR C-CLASS FLARES
OCCURRED, ONE UNCORRELATED, AND ONE FROM REGION 8393 (S16W97). THE
TWO MOST COMPLEX ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8395 (N19W49)
AND 8402 (N16E10), HAVE BOTH DECREASED IN COMPLEXITY SINCE
YESTERDAY. REGION 8395 HAS DECREASED IN AREA COVERAGE AND SPOT
COUNT, AND IS CURRENTLY A 3-SPOT 'HAX' ALPHA GROUP. REGION 8402 HAS
MAINTAINED ITS AREA COVERAGE, BUT ITS SPOT COUNT AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY HAVE BOTH DECREASED. REGION 8402 IS NOW A 10-SPOT 'EKO'
BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE INTERVAL OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT
ALL LATITUDES DURING THE PERIOD 05/1200-1500Z. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 DEC 142
PREDICTED   06 DEC-08 DEC  138/136/134
90 DAY MEAN        05 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 DEC  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 DEC  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 DEC-08 DEC  010/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 DEC-08 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/01
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01