:Product: 19981206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 340 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SIX MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED, FOLLOWING A PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. TWO NEW REGIONS EMERGED OVERNIGHT, 8404 (S22E02), A
SMALL BUT GROWING D-TYPE GROUP, AND 8405 (S16E64), A  SMALL C-TYPE
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE
TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 DEC 142
PREDICTED   07 DEC-09 DEC  144/144/146
90 DAY MEAN        06 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 DEC  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 DEC  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 DEC-09 DEC  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 DEC-09 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01