:Product: 19981207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 341 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THREE MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED,
8406 (S29E67) DURING THE UT DAY.  THIS ASSIGNED LOCATION AGREES
FAIRLY WELL WITH OLD RETURNING REGION 8384.  REGION 8404 (S23W12)
HAS HAD SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OCCUR DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MODERATE TO
HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 DEC 153
PREDICTED   08 DEC-10 DEC  150/148/146
90 DAY MEAN        07 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 DEC  003/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 DEC  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 DEC-10 DEC  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 DEC-10 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01