:Product: 19981208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 342 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  FIVE C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE LARGEST WAS A C7/1F EVENT FROM
REGION 8404 (S23W26) AT 08/1833Z.   A CME WAS OBSERVED FROM A LARGE
ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE NORTH EAST LIMB AROUND 08/1542Z.  NEW
REGION 8407 (S18E05) WAS NUMBERED,  AND IS CURRENTLY A CAO BETA
GROUP.  REGIONS 8404 AND 8405 HAVE SHOWN CONTINUED GROWTH SINCE
YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  NO
TERRESTRIAL EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CME ON THE NORTHEAST LIMB
THAT OCCURRED AROUND 08/1542Z DUE TO ITS POSITION (SEE PART IA
ABOVE).
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 DEC 162
PREDICTED   09 DEC-11 DEC  164/162/162
90 DAY MEAN        08 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 DEC  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 DEC  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 DEC-11 DEC  008/008-008/008-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 DEC-11 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01