:Product: 19981209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 343 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE LARGEST WAS A C5/1N
X-RAY EVENT AT 09/1740Z FROM REGION 8405 (S16E20).  THE FAST GROWTH
IN REGION 8404 (S23W38), NOTED THE LAST TWO DAYS, APPEARS TO HAVE
ENDED AS A DAI BETA GROUP.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, LEADING
TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 DEC 154
PREDICTED   10 DEC-12 DEC  151/148/146
90 DAY MEAN        09 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 DEC  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 DEC  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 DEC-12 DEC  008/008-008/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 DEC-12 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01