:Product: 19981210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 344 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  ALL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE
EITHER AN ALPHA OR BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION.  TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED.  FIRST, 8408 (S19E28), WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY
A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP.  SECOND, REGION 8406 (S27E28) WAS DIVIDED
WITH 8406 REMAINING TO THE WEST AS AN HSX ALPHA SPOT GROUP, AND NEW
REGION 8409 (S29E43) AS A DSO BETA GROUP JUST BEHIND REGION 8406.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX HAS BEEN IN THE MODERATE TO HIGH RANGE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
CLASS M    20/20/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 DEC 134
PREDICTED   11 DEC-13 DEC  132/128/122
90 DAY MEAN        10 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 DEC  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 DEC-13 DEC  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 DEC-13 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01