:Product: 19981211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 345 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8404
(S22W66), 8405 (S14W08), 8408 (S18E15), AND 8409 (S29E27). EACH OF
THESE REGIONS PRODUCED A C-CLASS X-RAY EVENT AND NUMEROUS OPTICAL
SUBFLARES. REGIONS 8408 AND 8409 HAVE DEVELOPED BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATIONS. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND
STABLE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8410 (N23E77) AN
HSX ALPHA GROUP AND REGION 8411(S28E64) AN AXX ALPHA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO MOSTLY ACTIVE WITH PERIODS OF
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
HAVE BEEN THE RESULT OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION THAT OCCURRED ON THE
NORTH EAST LIMB ON 08 DECEMBER AT 1500UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 DEC 143
PREDICTED   12 DEC-14 DEC  128/125/121
90 DAY MEAN        11 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 DEC  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 DEC  020/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 DEC-14 DEC  010/014-010/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 DEC-14 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01