:Product: 19981212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 346 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8404
(S22W77), 8408 (S18E01), AND 8409 (S29E13). ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED
MINOR C-CLASS X-RAYS EVENTS AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8408 HAS
GROWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENTLY IT IS A 19 SPOT DSO
BETA-GAMMA GROUP. REGION 8411 HAS ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN SIZE AND
NUMBER OF SPOTS, CURRENTLY A 5 SPOT CSO BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED WAS UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND HAS SINCE
BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 DEC 143
PREDICTED   13 DEC-15 DEC  140/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        12 DEC 131
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 DEC  019/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC  010/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC  010/010-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 DEC-15 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01