:Product: 19981213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 347 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED THIS PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE 8404 (S24W86),
8408 (S18W13), AND 8409 (S28E01). REGION 8408 HAS DOUBLED IN SIZE TO
190 MILLIONTHS AND HAS ALSO EVOLVED INTO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 DEC-16 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 DEC 144
PREDICTED   14 DEC-16 DEC  140/140/140
90 DAY MEAN        13 DEC 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 DEC  007/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 DEC  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 DEC-16 DEC  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 DEC-16 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01