:Product: 19981214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 348 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY MINOR AND MODERATE C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED THIS PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8408
(S19W28). THIS REGION PRODUCED TWO C7 X-RAY EVENTS, A 1F OPTICAL
FLARE, AND SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES. REGION 8408 HAS CONTINUED TO
GROW IN SIZE, CURRENTLY WITH AN AREA OF 250 MILLIONTHS. THE MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION IS BETA-GAMMA, LOSING THE DELTA CONFIGURATION NOTED
YESTERDAY. REGION 8409 (S28E01) IS A 22 SPOT ESI BETA-GAMMA GROUP
THAT HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE REGIONS WERE
MOSTLY STABLE WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGIONS 8408 AND 8409.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT MID LATITUDE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 DEC 144
PREDICTED   15 DEC-17 DEC  140/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        14 DEC 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 DEC  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 DEC  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 DEC-17 DEC  005/008-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 DEC-17 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01