:Product: 19981215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 349 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8408 (S18W40) AND REGION 8409
(S28W25) PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.  REGION 8408 HAS SHOWN SOME
SLOW DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS NOW A DAO BETA GROUP WITH ELEVEN
SPOTS.  ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED, 8413 (N18E13), AND IS CURRENTLY
A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP WITH TWO SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8408 OR 8409.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 DEC 142
PREDICTED   16 DEC-18 DEC  140/135/132
90 DAY MEAN        15 DEC 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 DEC  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 DEC  004/004
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 DEC-18 DEC  008/008-010/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 DEC-18 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01