:Product: 19981216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 350 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONLY C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  THE LARGEST WAS A C5/SN EVENT FROM
REGION 8409 (S27W38) AT 16/1909Z.  REGION 8408 (S18W53) AND REGION
8409 PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.  ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED, 8414
(N21E49), AND IS CURRENTLY A BXO BETA SPOT GROUP WITH FOUR SPOTS
VISIBLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH CONTINUED C-CLASS EVENTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ONE PERIOD (16/0600
TO 16/0900Z) OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH LATITUDES DUE TO THE
AFFECT OF A CORONAL HOLE PASSAGE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD
DUE TO THE EFFECT OF A CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.  THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 DEC 141
PREDICTED   17 DEC-19 DEC  140/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        16 DEC 132
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 DEC  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 DEC  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 DEC-19 DEC  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 DEC-19 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01