:Product: 19981224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 358 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 DEC 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C5 AT 24/0054Z AND THE SECOND WAS A C6/SF AT 24/0127Z FROM REGION
8416 (N20E20). REGION 8421 (N27E64) PRODUCED A M1/SF AT 24/1145Z. A
NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8422 (S23E75).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
CLASS M    40/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 DEC 139
PREDICTED   25 DEC-27 DEC  145/150/154
90 DAY MEAN        24 DEC 133
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 DEC  003/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 DEC  005/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 DEC-27 DEC  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 DEC-27 DEC
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05