:Product: 19990101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 001 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS BY VIRTUE
OF AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 01/0031UT. REGION
8421 (N27W39) SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREA AND SPOT NUMBER. IT
REMAINED A LARGE, MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION AND PRODUCED ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARES, ONE OF WHICH WAS A LONG-DURATION C3/SF THAT
PEAKED AT 01/1245UT. NONE OF TODAY'S FLARES PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT
RADIO EMISSION. ACTIVE SURGING WAS VISIBLE IN REGION 8419 (N28W95)
AS IT CROSSED THE WEST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE LIKELY FROM REGION
8421. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    20/20/20
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 JAN 167
PREDICTED   02 JAN-04 JAN  165/165/165
90 DAY MEAN        01 JAN 136
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 DEC  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 JAN  003/003
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 JAN-04 JAN  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 JAN-04 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01