:Product: 19990102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 002 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECLINED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8421
(N26W53) REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX, BUT SHOWED NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN SIZE OR STRUCTURE. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. ALL REMAINING SPOT GROUPS WERE SMALL
AND STABLE INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGIONS 8428 (N23W15) AND 8429
(N34E38).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FOM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 JAN 160
PREDICTED   03 JAN-05 JAN  160/155/155
90 DAY MEAN        02 JAN 137
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JAN  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JAN  006/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JAN-05 JAN  005/010-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 JAN-05 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01