:Product: 19990103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 003 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED, BUT REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS.
TODAY'S MOST ENERGETIC EVENT WAS A LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE FROM
REGION 8422 (S23W50) ASSOCIATED WITH AN 18-DEGREE FILAMENT
DISAPPEARANCE AND A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP. OBSERVATORIES REPORTED
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT WITHIN THE FILAMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO
THE DISAPPEARANCE. HOWEVER, REGION 8422 SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND REMAINED A SMALL, SIMPLE SPOT GROUP. REGION 8421
(N26W65) SIMPLIFIED SLIGHTLY, BUT REMAINED A LARGE, MAGNETICALLY
COMPLEX GROUP. IT PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE LATE IN THE
PERIOD, BUT WAS OTHERWISE STABLE. NEW REGION 8430 (S25E50) WAS
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
CLASS M    50/50/40
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 JAN 155
PREDICTED   04 JAN-06 JAN  150/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        03 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JAN  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JAN  003/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JAN-06 JAN  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 JAN-06 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01