:Product: 19990104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 004 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. A PAIR OF MINOR
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST, AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-3 BURST OCCURRED AT 04/0836Z. REGION 8421 (N26W79)
MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY AND EXHIBITED FREQUENT SURGING AS IT
NEARS THE WEST LIMB. REGIONS 8426 (N15E04) AND 8428 (N22W35)
PRODUCED MINOR SUBFLARES BUT OTHERWISE SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
NEW REGION 8431 (S28E69) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8421 REMAINS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR A LARGE
FLARE, BUT EXPECT LOW M-CLASS AT BEST.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FROM DAY 1 TO LATE ON DAY 2.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE ON DAY 2 THROUGH DAY 3 IN
RESPONSE TO THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
CLASS M    45/35/20
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     10/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 JAN 147
PREDICTED   05 JAN-07 JAN  140/135/130
90 DAY MEAN        04 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JAN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JAN-07 JAN  005/008-012/015-020/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 JAN-07 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/25/45
MINOR STORM           05/15/30
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/50
MINOR STORM           05/20/35
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/15