:Product: 19990105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 005 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL SMALL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. REGION 8421 (N26W84)
CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECAY AS IT ROTATES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8426
(N15W10) WAS THE ONLY REGION SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT GROWTH AND IS
NOW A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP COVERING 190 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT
AREA. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET AND STABLE. NEW REGION 8432
(N27W35) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8321 AND 8326 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY DAY 2 FROM THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG-DURATION C6/1N FLARE ON 03/1514Z. DAY 3
WILL BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED AS A SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE MOVES INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
CLASS M    35/20/10
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 JAN 137
PREDICTED   06 JAN-08 JAN  135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        05 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JAN  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JAN  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JAN-08 JAN  012/015-020/025-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 JAN-08 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/50/15
MINOR STORM           20/30/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/55/25
MINOR STORM           25/35/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05