:Product: 19990106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 006 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 JAN 1999   -C0RR-
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY TWO OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY BURSTS OBSERVED. REGION 8426 (N14W24) APPEARS
TO HAVE STABILIZED AS AN E-TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 160 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8426 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS IN HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS OF THE 3 JAN CORONAL MASS
EJECTION AND THE ROTATION OF A LARGE SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE INTO A
GEO-EFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION, WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISTURBED
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 JAN  126
PREDICTED   07 JAN-09 JAN  125/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        06 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JAN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JAN  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JAN-09 JAN  020/025-008/012-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 JAN-09 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/35/35
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/40/40
MINOR STORM           30/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/01/01