:Product: 19990107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 007 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A LONG DURATION, OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-8 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT 07/0006Z. A TYPE II SWEEP
WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 600 KM/S WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.
SPACE-BASED IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY ORIGINATED FROM BEHIND THE
WEST LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS WERE VERY QUIET. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8433 (S28E10), 8434 (S26E46), AND 8435
(N14E18).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. THERE'S STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ANOTHER C-CLASS X-RAY
BURST FROM BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8426 (N15W37) HOLDS THE
STRONGEST CHANCE FOR LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES DUE TO A LARGE
SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 JAN 115
PREDICTED   08 JAN-10 JAN  115/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        07 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JAN  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JAN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JAN-10 JAN  008/012-008/012-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 JAN-10 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01