:Product: 19990108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 008 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8431 (S28E19) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A LONG-DURATION C3/SF PEAKING AT
08/1022UT. THIS REGION IS A SMALL, RELATIVELY SIMPLE BIPOLAR SUNSPOT
GROUP. THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK IS 8426 (N14W50) AND IS
SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM A NUMBER OF SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS
INCLUDING 8426 (N14W50),  8431 (S28E19), 8433 (S28W04), AND 8434
(S27E35).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE EXPERIENCED AT MANY STATIONS DURING THE 08/0900-1200UT PERIOD.
THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 JAN-11 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 JAN 116
PREDICTED   09 JAN-11 JAN  115/115/120
90 DAY MEAN        08 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JAN  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JAN  013/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JAN-11 JAN  010/015-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 JAN-11 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01