:Product: 19990109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 009 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A VERY SLOW RISE-AND-FALL
C1 X-RAY EVENT WHICH REACHED THE C-CLASS LEVEL AT 09/1923UT.
GROUND-BASED H-ALPHA OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ORIGINATING FROM BEYOND THE NORTHWEST SOLAR
LIMB NEAR NW28. NO OPTICAL FLARES WERE REPORTED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. REGION 8426 (N14W64) CONTINUES TO DECAY. REGION 8431 (S28E06)
IS GROWING SLOWLY. NEW REGION 8436 (S30E64) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8431 IS THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR C-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JAN-12 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JAN 115
PREDICTED   10 JAN-12 JAN  115/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        09 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JAN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JAN  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JAN-12 JAN  010/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JAN-12 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01