:Product: 19990111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 011 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO TWO OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS, A C1 AT 11/1735UT AND A C2 AT
11/1959UT. THE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE EITHER
DECAYED OR REMAINED UNCHANGED. ALL ARE SMALL AND RELATIVELY SIMPLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JAN-14 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JAN 112
PREDICTED   12 JAN-14 JAN  112/115/120
90 DAY MEAN        11 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JAN  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JAN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JAN-14 JAN  005/009-005/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JAN-14 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01