:Product: 19990112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 012 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO C-6 X-RAY FLARES, AT 0117Z
AND 1156Z, WERE APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURGING ON THE SOUTHEAST
LIMB WHERE NEWLY ASSIGNED REGION 8439 (S24E70) IS COMING FULLY INTO
VIEW. THIS REGION WAS NOT VISIBLE LAST ROTATION BUT APPEARS TO
POSSESS SOME MATURE SPOTS AND A CERTAIN LEVEL OF VOLATILITY.
ELSEWHERE, ANOTHER NEW REGION, 8438 (S18E07), WAS ASSIGNED. IT GREW
RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD BUT AS YET IT HAS BEEN UNPRODUCTIVE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE DISK WAS QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8439 SHOULD PERSIST AS THE MAIN FLARE PRODUCER.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT ABOUT
1200Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JAN-15 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JAN 113
PREDICTED   13 JAN-15 JAN  120/125/130
90 DAY MEAN        12 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JAN  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JAN  003/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JAN-15 JAN  005/009-005/009-005/011
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JAN-15 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01