:Product: 19990114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 014 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N19E56)
PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE INTERVAL. THE FLARES WERE AN
M3/SN AT 1020Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 1903Z. BOTH EVENTS WERE IMPULSIVE
WITH LITTLE RESPONSE ACROSS THE RADIO SPECTRUM. REGION 8440 ALSO
GENERATED A C6/1N AT 0100Z. REGION 8439 (S24E53), THE LARGEST GROUP
ON THE DISK, HAD A FEW SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. ELSEWHERE, NEW
REGION 8441 (N18E28) WAS BORN ON THE DISK. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AT
MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS AT MIDDLE
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED CONDITIONS VARYING FROM QUIET
TO MAJOR STORM. THIS DISTURBANCE, ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
CORONAL MASS EJECTION, IS NOW WEAKENING.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED BRIEF SUBSTORMS MAY BRING ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING
LOCAL NIGHTTIMES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JAN 137
PREDICTED   15 JAN-17 JAN  150/160/170
90 DAY MEAN        14 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JAN  019/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JAN  020/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JAN-17 JAN  010/012-010/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JAN-17 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/15
MINOR STORM           15/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01