:Product: 19990115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 015 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8440 (N20E42)
CONTINUED AS THE DOMINANT ACTIVE REGION ON THE DISK AS IT PRODUCED
ANOTHER M-CLASS EVENT (M1/1F AT 0721Z), AS WELL AS NUMEROUS C-CLASS
FLARES. THE LARGEST C-CLASS EVENT WAS A C9/1B AT 1444Z. THE REGION
CONSISTS OF NEARLY 30 SPOTS, BRIGHT PLAGE, AND A POSSIBLE MIXED
POLARITY (DELTA) CONFIGURATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
INTERMEDIATE SPOTS. REGION 8439 (S24E41) GENERATED A C3/1F AT 1314Z,
BUT LITTLE ELSE. IT HAS A SLIGHT DEGREE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AS
WELL AS APPROXIMATELY 25 SPOTS. ELSEWHERE, THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK
AND LIMBS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. CONTINUED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8440, AND
SHOULD FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCUR, REGION 8439.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES, AND
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM AT HIGH LATITUDES. A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND
STREAM HAS PROLONGED THE CME-RELATED DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN ON 13
JANUARY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SUBSTORMS MAY BRING BRIEF ACTIVE LEVELS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JAN 143
PREDICTED   16 JAN-18 JAN  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        15 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JAN  017/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JAN  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JAN-18 JAN  015/015-010/009-005/009
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JAN-18 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/25/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01