:Product: 19990116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 016 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO M-CLASS FLARES WERE
REPORTED: AN M3 AT 16/1207UT AND AN M1 AT 16/1956UT. ALTHOUGH BOTH
FLARES WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED THEY WERE MOST LIKELY PRODUCED BY
REGION 8440 (N19E29). REGION 8440 IS THE DOMINANT ACTIVE REGION ON
THE DISK. BESIDES THE PROBABLE M-CLASS FLARES IT HAS PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE DAY. THE REGION IS CURRENTLY A 31
SPOT EAI GROUP WITH A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. THE OTHER
ACTIVE REGION WAS 8339 (S24E28). 8339  PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 16/0137UT
BUT HAS SHOWN NO ACTIVITY SINCE THEN. REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS
WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE. CONTINUED M-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY FROM REGION 8440 AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES FROM 8439.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS ALL DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE PERIOD 16/0000UT TO 16/0600UT. DURING THAT
PERIOD THE FLUX FELL BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FILED IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JAN 159
PREDICTED   17 JAN-19 JAN  160/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        16 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JAN  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JAN  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JAN-19 JAN  010/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JAN-19 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01