:Product: 19990117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 017 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS
WERE 8439 (S24E24) AND 8440 (N19E16). REGION 8439 HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY, PRODUCING 3 C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST BEING
A C5/SF AT 17/1955UT. THIS EVENT ALSO PRODUCED A TYPE II SWEEP. THE
REGIONS SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 31 TO 40, WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN AREA. CURRENTLY AN FAO SPOT GROUP WITH A BETA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION. REGION 8440 HAS SHOWN A REDUCTION IN ACTIVITY
PRODUCING ONLY 5 C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST A C4/SF AT 17/1156UT.
THE REGIONS SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 31 TO 42, WITH A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN AREA. CURRENTLY AN EAI SPOT GROUP WITH A BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY; 8442
(N24W16). CURRENTLY AN 8 SPOT DSO BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 17/0000-0130UT. THE FLUX FELL
BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS DURING THAT PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JAN 161
PREDICTED   18 JAN-20 JAN  165/170/175
90 DAY MEAN        17 JAN 138
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JAN  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JAN  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JAN-20 JAN  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JAN-20 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01