:Product: 19990118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 018 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THIS WAS DUE TO A SINGLE
M-CLASS EVENT, AN M2/1N FLARE AT 18/0804UT, FROM REGION 8440
(S18E64). REGIONS 8439 (S24E00) AND 8440 WERE THE MOST ACTIVE
REGIONS, BOTH PRODUCING NUMEROUS C-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8442
(N25W28) HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD, PRODUCING A
C1/SF AT 18/1839UT. REGION 8442 HAS ALSO SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE
NUMBER OF SPOTS FROM 8 TO 15 AND A CHANGE IN MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION
FROM A SIMPLE BETA TO A BETA-GAMMA-DELTA. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY; 8443 (S18E64). CURRENTLY A 3 SPOT BXO BETA SPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS A HIGH LEVELS FOR THE DAY
UNTIL AROUND 18/1900UT WHEN IT DROPPED WELL BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JAN 171
PREDICTED   19 JAN-21 JAN  175/180/185
90 DAY MEAN        18 JAN 139
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN  008/010-008/010-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JAN-21 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01