:Product: 19990119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 019 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO MOST ACTIVE REGIONS
WERE 8439 (S23W13) AND 8440 (N19W10) BOTH REGIONS HAVE PRODUCED
NUMEROUS C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES. BOTH REGIONS
ARE SHOWING PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS, ACTIVE SURGING, AND HAVE BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY
QUIET AND STABLE. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY: 8444 (N19E20)
A 2 SPOT AXX ALPHA GROUP AND 8445 (N10E25) A 3 SPOT BXO BETA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JAN 176
PREDICTED   20 JAN-22 JAN  180/185/185
90 DAY MEAN        19 JAN 140
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JAN  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JAN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JAN-22 JAN  008/008-012/015-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JAN-22 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/30/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01