:Product: 19990120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 020 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  A LONG DURATION M-5 X-RAY
EVENT OCCURRED AT 20/2003Z.  THE SOURCE OF THIS EVENT IS SUSPECTED
TO BE FROM JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB DUE TO A CME REPORTED BY
THE MAUNA LOA SOLAR OBSERVATORY.  A TYPE IV, AND A TYPE II SWEEP
WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 800 KM/S WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.  AN
230 SFU TENFLARE WAS ALSO DETECTED.  REGIONS 8439 (S23W29) AND 8440
(N19W25) CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT
BRIGHTENINGS.  SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY FLARES AND OPTICAL
SUBFLARES ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8442 (N24W55) HAS
DECAYED FROM 11 SPOTS WITH A BETA-GAMMA DELTA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION DOWN TO 7 SPOTS AND A MORE SIMPLE BETA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE.  REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS.  ANOTHER ISOLATED EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM THE REGION
JUST BEHIND THE NORTH EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF A PROTON EVENT AT
GREATER THAN 10MEV AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M5 X-RAY EVENT.  IF THE
EVENT DOES OCCUR, PROTONS ARE EXPECTED AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IN
ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
CLASS M    60/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 JAN 172
PREDICTED   21 JAN-23 JAN  178/185/185
90 DAY MEAN        20 JAN 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN  012/012-012/014-012/014
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 JAN-23 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01