:Product: 19990121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 021 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  REGIONS 8439 (S22W42) AND
8440 (N19W37) CONTINUE TO HAVE PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT
BRIGHTENINGS.  BOTH REGIONS MAINTAINED A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC
CLASSIFICATION WITH APPROXIMATELY 25 SPOTS IN EACH REGION.  NEW
REGION 8446 (N14E61) APPEARED AS A BXO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 3 SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.  ANOTHER EVENT COULD OCCUR FROM THE REGION
JUST BEHIND THE NORTHEAST LIMB, THE SITE OF YESTERDAY'S M5 X-RAY
EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTONS BECAME ENHANCED BUT BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD FROM
YESTERDAY'S SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 JAN-24 JAN
CLASS M    60/50/50
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 JAN 175
PREDICTED   22 JAN-24 JAN  180/185/180
90 DAY MEAN        21 JAN 141
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN  012/014-012/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 JAN-24 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01