:Product: 19990122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 022 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8440 (N19W50)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF EVENT AT 22/1724Z.  REGION 8440 AND REGION 8439
(S23W57) HAVE MAINTAINED BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATIONS WITH
APPROXIMATELY 28 SPOTS IN EACH REGION.  REGION 8444 (N19W14) HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT
GROWTH FROM A CSO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH 7 SPOTS TO A DSO-BETA GROUP
WITH 10 SPOTS.  NEW REGION 8447 (N19W20) IS A CSO-BETA GROUP WITH 6
SPOTS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTELD.  ACTIVE
CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED IN THE 22/1500-1800Z PERIOD.  THE GREATER
THAN 10 MEV PROTONS STAYED ENHANCED, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD.  A WEAK SHOCK WAS SEEN AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT AT
22/2000Z AND IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOLAR ACTIVITY ON 20
JANUARY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD
WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED, OR INCREASE DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
CLASS M    50/50/40
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JAN 178
PREDICTED   23 JAN-25 JAN  180/178/175
90 DAY MEAN        22 JAN 142
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JAN  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JAN  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JAN-25 JAN  014/012-010/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JAN-25 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/20
MINOR STORM           30/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01