:Product: 19990123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 023 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8439 (S23W70) PRODUCED
A C5/1N EVENT AT 23/1514Z.  THE REGION ALSO PRODUCED NUMEROUS
SMALLER C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  REGION 8439 AND
8440 (N19W63) SHOWED SOME SLIGHT DECAY.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  AS REGIONS 8439 AND 8440 START APPROACHING THE WEST
LIMB, THEY ARE EACH STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD.  THE
GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS PASSED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD AT 23/1105Z,
AND REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 14 PFU AT 23/1130Z.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER,
THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES SLOWLY DECLINED BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 23/1245Z, BUT REMAINED ENHANCED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIOD.  THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENHANCED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 JAN-26 JAN
CLASS M    50/40/20
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 JAN 166
PREDICTED   24 JAN-26 JAN  164/160/158
90 DAY MEAN        23 JAN 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 JAN-26 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01