:Product: 19990127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 027 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NEW REGION 8450 (N21W18)
EMERGED DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED A MODERATE DURATION C3/2F
PARALLEL RIBBON FLARE AT 27/1654Z. A LARGE PART OF THE MATERIAL IN A
NEARBY FILAMENT FADED DURING THE EVENT. NO RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED
THIS EVENT. OTHER DISK REGIONS WERE STABLE OR EXHIBITED SLIGHT
DECAY. THERE WERE SOME SOFT X-RAY ENHANCEMENTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB DURING THE PERIOD WHERE OLD REGION 8439 COMPLETED ITS WEST LIMB
TRANSIT TWO DAYS AGO.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW FOR 28-29
JAN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, VERY LOW LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ON 30
JAN.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOWED
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VELOCITY AND BZ WAS SOUTHWARD FOR ALMOST ALL OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JAN-30 JAN
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    05/01/01
PROTON     05/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JAN 125
PREDICTED   28 JAN-30 JAN  118/112/110
90 DAY MEAN        27 JAN 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN  010/008-010/007-010/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JAN-30 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01