:Product: 19990128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 028 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW.  THE CURRENT ACTIVE
REGIONS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AS THEY PRODUCE MINOR FLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW WITH SMALL X-RAY EVENTS REACHING TO ABOUT CLASS C
THRESHOLDS FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVE REGIONS.   AT THIS POINT, THE
BEST PROSPECTS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY MIGHT BE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH FILAMENT ACTIVITY.  THE LONG FILAMENT STRUCTURES NOW VISIBLE ON
THE SOLAR FACE ARE INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND
RESTRUCTURING OF LARGE SCALE FIELDS AS THE NEW CYCLE CONTINUES TO
BUILD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN UNSETTLED.  ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES
CONTINUE THEIR DECLINE FROM THE SMALL ENHANCEMENT OF JANUARY 25 AND
ARE NEARING THEIR NORMAL QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JAN 119
PREDICTED   29 JAN-31 JAN  112/110/110
90 DAY MEAN        28 JAN 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  006/008-005/005-006/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           02/02/02
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                06/06/07
MINOR STORM           03/03/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02