:Product: 19990131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 031 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JAN 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW.  SEVERAL SMALL
REGIONS REMAIN VISIBLE AND TWO NEW SIMPLE SUNSPOT GROUPS HAVE
APPEARED.  REGION 8446 (N17W72) REMAINS THE MOST INTERESTING REGION
BUT IT IS PRODUCING ONLY EXTREMELY SMALL EVENTS.  TWO CORONAL HOLES
ARE NOW VISIBLE AT MIDDLE LATITUDES IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE, ONE
IN THE NORTH AND ONE IN THE SOUTH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  AN INCREASE FROM THE CURRENT
EXTREMELY QUIET CONDITION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS THE TWO
SMALL CORONAL HOLES ROTATE TOWARD THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE.  MODELS
PREDICT THAT CONDITIONS WILL REACH UNSETTLED LEVELS IN THE NEXT
THREE DAYS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS FOLLOWING THAT.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
CLASS M    10/10/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JAN 115
PREDICTED   01 FEB-03 FEB  115/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        31 JAN 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB  007/009-007/010-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           02/02/02
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                06/06/07
MINOR STORM           03/03/03
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02