:Product: 19990201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 032 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8446 (N18W82) PRODUCED A
C3/SF FLARE AT 0839Z. THE OTHER SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS WERE VERY
STABLE. A 7 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR S22W55 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 31/2057
AND 01/1243Z. TODAY'S H-ALPHA DATA INDICATED SOME FAINT, REMAINING
TRACES OF THE FILAMENT, SUGGESTING THAT MATERIAL MAY HAVE FADED
RATHER THAN ERUPTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 FEB-04 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 FEB 118
PREDICTED   02 FEB-04 FEB  115/115/110
90 DAY MEAN        01 FEB 144
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JAN  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 FEB-04 FEB  010/008-010/008-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 FEB-04 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05