:Product: 19990202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 033 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW SUNSPOT REGIONS
WERE ASSIGNED TODAY: REGION 8453 (S26E44) AND REGION 8454 (S22E16).
BOTH ARE SIMPLE, STABLE, B-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS VERY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A SOLAR
CORONAL HOLE WILL BE ROTATING INTO GEOEFFECTIVE LONGITUDES OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAY INCREASE ACTIVITY TO UNSETTLED LEVELS, WITH
A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS AS WELL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 FEB 111
PREDICTED   03 FEB-05 FEB  110/110/110
90 DAY MEAN        02 FEB 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB  000/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB  010/008-012/012-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/20
MINOR STORM           10/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05