:Product: 19990203RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Feb 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 034 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 FEB 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C1 FLARE AT 0152Z. REGION 8453 (S26E32) SHOWED SLOW GROWTH DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT WAS ESSENTIALLY STABLE. THE REMAINING TWO
SUNSPOT REGIONS WERE VERY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8453 MAY PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENT IF
CURRENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITIDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF ENHANCED ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE
EFFECTS. THE HOLE IS OF SUFFICIENTLY HIGH LATITUDE, HOWEVER, THAT
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY IS UNLIKELY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 FEB 109
PREDICTED   04 FEB-06 FEB  110/110/115
90 DAY MEAN        03 FEB 143
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 FEB  003/002
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 FEB  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 FEB-06 FEB  010/012-010/015-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 FEB-06 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05